Friday, February 06, 2009

CDS Market Technical Analysis

Equities are getting ahead of spreads in this rally as the midweek highs in equity were broken today while the midweek tights in IG remain safe (so far). Our top-down CSA model sees the S&P slightly cheap (low), CDS modestly rich, and vol a little high, offering little top-down direction.

We have been building a very significant base in IG over the past few weeks and a pattern is appearing the hourly, daily, and weekly charts that makes us more prone to look for upside blowouts (widening) in spreads.

We do not typically publish our thoughts on the technical analysis side of the market but due to client demand (and our view that some of it provides significant benefits in this type of market) we are providing our thoughts below.

Bottom line is that we are trading sideways with some significant support and resistance levels forming as investors sit on their hands for more fundamental reasons. The formation of multiple time frame-based upside (widening) breakout patterns biases us to look for a bearish trade but we discuss entries and stops for longs also.

We also note that the market has historically repeated the same pattern we are seeing now a few times over the past year or two: rally into an expectation of a major government plan and then sell-off after the real plan comes to lights, the levels below might help plan for that.

The charts showing these patterns and our views are available upon request.

Weekly View
Looking technically at weekly bars on IG, we see IG hovering at the lower end of a support trendline from the 05/02 low to 09/12 low, this has provided significant congestion in the last few weeks and has held on every test in the mid 180s levels. This area of congestion is also confirmed by a upside channel trendline from the 08/03/07 wides and 10/19/07 tights.

Weekly charts also show a 3-4 week pattern evolving that we have seen before. Starting 11/23/07 and 07/18/2008, we see a weekly bar with a large blowout widening spike and close near its tights and then a congestion phase of inside bars for the next few weeks. This is then followed by a significant breakout widening of the initial spike week's wides. This same pattern is evolving currently. From the 01/16 spike, we have now had four weeks of sideways congestion.

We would look to be buying protection on a break above 230bps (on the weekly charts) but for an earlier entry short, we would scale in from 209.5bps, with a stop at the 188.5bps tights of the last four weeks. Our proprietary indicators show that the uptrend remains in tact but short-term is converging to longer-term trends and we would wait for a divergence to re-enter short.

Daily View
The trend channel made from lining the 10/09/07 tights to 05/01/08 tights and extending parallel from the 07/27/07 wides is providing a significant area of support and resistance for the daily charts of IG11.

There is also a very credit-bearish pattern evolving in the daily chart. The 'W' bottom that we have seen twice before in the last few years is forming very cleanly. From 09/06/07 to 10/18/07 we formed a very attractive 'W' bottom which saw a huge breakout widening of the middle peak. The same pattern evolved from 04/21/08 to 05/20/08 and we saw a major breakout widening from the middle peak of the pattern.

From the 12/18/08 highs we have formed a clear 'W' pattern in daily OHLC bars, with this week's rally and turnaround forming the second leg of the 'W'. The 188bps tights of the pattern provide significant support for any shorts (with a break looking to be sold (protection) potentially down to 150bps support. We feel a better approach is to look for breakouts of the middle peak at around 226bps.

The risk (distance to support/stops) is high still and we think the channel of the 'W' may hold but with the stimulus and Geithner plans, we sense an aggressive sell on news spike coming. The MACD is directionless as is our ADX indicating (what we already know) that the market is going sideways as investors sit on their hands ahead of the 'new CDS' contracts and the Geithner plan.

Hourly View
Clearly, using hourly bars is for the dealers or scalpers in the market but we find it very useful for short-term support and resistance analysis and furthermore it provides a much clearer view of congestion areas.

There is a major credit-bearish triangle forming from the 12/05/08 wides to 01/21/09 wides extended to today combined with the 11/05/08 to the recent 190bps tights lower channel. This is converging to a crux at the current levels and time and with the major support from this longer-term trendline low, we would expect to see an upside breakout (widening).

There are some relatively wide congestion bands that stand out for traders. The tightest is from 130-150bps and provides both a target for any bullish credit trades from here as well as longer-term stops for bears. The 180-200bps range has been very heavily traded over the last few months and provides a healthy range for trading within a channel but we would be nervous of breakouts either way. On the upside (wider) the range from 255bps to 170bps provides a significant target for shorts.

All trend indicators show that we are trendless but if investors are long credit then our Parabolic stops show a level around 223bps as a very solid stop (and accelerating). Notably, the Market Profile analysis performed on the intraday data that we track shows an overly-active region in the 190-205bps range and a major hole in the 230-260bps range. Although we know markets are non-normal, we have found this tick-by-tick histogram to be useful in the past for identifying potential gaps.

IG and HY Pivots
Our proprietary pivot points on IG and HY provide useful support and resistance levels within their recent ranges.

Our pivot point analysis suggests intraday resistance at 198.4bps in IG11, and breaking support at 191.97bps or resistance at 201.47bps as significant, with the index trend bearish (based on pivot point moving average changes), shifting tighter by 0.28bps per day over the last few days. On a short-term basis (based on the last 5 days trading), we see 198.75bps as a critical pivot point with 209.25bps, 218.5bps, and 227.75bps as important resistance levels, and 189.5bps, 179bps, and 169.75bps as important support levels. The short-term 'protection' relative strength indicator on IG moved from stable to strongly oversold (protection) at 26.7%.

Our pivot point analysis suggests intraday resistance at 1382.83bps in HY11, and breaking support at 1346.52bps or resistance at 1430.61bps as significant, with the index trend bearish (based on pivot point moving average changes), shifting wider by 3.81bps per day over the last few days.

On a short-term basis (based on the last 5 days trading), we see 1390.2bps as a critical pivot point for HY10 with 1460.39bps, 1523.16bps, and 1585.93bps as important resistance levels, and 1327.43bps, 1257.24bps, and 1194.47bps as important support levels.On a short-term basis (based on the last 5 days trading), we see 1390.2bps as a critical pivot point for HY10 with 1460.39bps, 1523.16bps, and 1585.93bps as important resistance levels, and 1327.43bps, 1257.24bps, and 1194.47bps as important support levels.

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