Spreads were mixed this week with HY continuing to underperform IG and HVOL as the 'up-in-quality' trade remains amid the Stimulus and Geithner uncertainty. Intrinsics behaved in the exact opposite manner as HY and XO single-names outperformed IG and HVOL single-names as skews increased in every index (IG, HVOL, and ExHVOL all extremely rich while XO and HY remain very cheap).
Tighteners outpaced wideners by just under two-to-one on the week while low beta credits outperformed higher beta credits as TMT names were significantly weaker while FINLs hung steady as ENRG outperformed dramatically. Once again, CDX index values behaved very differently from the moves in our non-traded-biased indices which showed much less tightening this week in IG relative to HY credits this week.
Dispersion rose significantly with the extreme moves in spreads at the tails really reflecting the illiquidity as well as sentiment. We note that the LQD-TLH differential is trading significantly rich to IG credits and we suggest shorting the equity differential (Buy TLH and Short LQD) with a target of over $16 (from around $13 currently).
The sell-off in Treasuries seems to signal a reality that inflationary pressures from printing presses are here to stay (confirmed once again by the significant rise in USA protection costs).
Market Summary(WoW)
Spreads were mixed in the US today with IG tighter, HVOL improving, ExHVOL better, XO wider, and HY selling off. Indices generally outperformed intrinsics with skews widening in general as IG's skew decompressed as the index beat intrinsics, HVOL outperformed but widened the skew, ExHVOL outperformed pushing the skew wider, XO underperformed but widened the skew, and HY's skew widened as it underperformed.
12% of names in IG moved more than their historical vol would imply as higher vol names underperformed lower vol names by -0.1% to -1.73%. IG's vol is around 10.96% per 5 day period, which leaves 107 names higher vol and 18 lower vol than the index.
The names having the largest impact on IG are Constellation Energy Group Inc. (-110bps) pushing IG 0.89bps tighter, and Textron Financial Corp (+555.45bps) adding 2.1bps to IG. HVOL is more sensitive with International Lease Finance Corp. pushing it 1.63bps tighter, and Dow Chemical Company contributing 3.91bps to HVOL's change today. The less volatile ExHVOL's move today is driven by both Constellation Energy Group Inc. (-110bps) pushing the index 1.12bps tighter, and Textron Financial Corp (+555.45bps) adding 2.64bps to ExHVOL.
The price of investment grade credit rose 0.26% to around 98.28% of par, while the price of high yield credits fell 0.59% to around 73.75% of par. Volatility (VIX) is down -1.47pts to 43.37%, with 10Y TSY selling off (yield rising) 14.6bps to 2.99% and the 2s10s curve steepened by 9.7bps, as the cost of protection on US Treasuries rose 14.4bps to 82.4bps. 2Y swap spreads tightened 8.8bps to 61bps, as the TED Spread widened by 0.9bps to 0.97%.
The Dollar weakened with DXY falling 0.76% to 85.346, Oil falling $1.61 to $40.07 (underperforming the dollar as the value of Oil (rebased to the value of gold) fell by 2.13% this week (a 4.62% drop in the relative (dollar adjusted) value of a barrel of oil), and Gold dropping $16.4 to $911.45 as the S&P rallies (845.5 2.8%) underperforming IG11 credits (193bps -3.02%) while IG, which opened the week at 203.5bps, outperforms HY credits. IG10 and XOver10 are -0.5bps and -63bps respectively while ITRX10 is -11.5bps to 148.5bps.
The majority of credit curves steepened as the vol term structure steepened with VIX/VIXV decreasing implying a more bearish/more volatile short-term outlook (normally indicative of short-term spread decompression expectations).
Dispersion rose +69bps in IG11. Broad market dispersion is a little greater than historically expected given current spread levels, indicating more general discrimination among credits than on average over the past year, and dispersion increasing more than expected today indicating a less systemic and more idiosyncratic spread widening/tightening at the tails. 76% of IG credits are shifting by more than 3bps and 66% of the CDX11 universe are also shifting significantly (less than the 5 day average of 68%).
The number of names wider than the index increased by 1 to 55 as the week's range fell to 19.75bps (one-month average 30.25bps), between low bid at 188.25 and high offer at 208 and higher beta credits (0.74%) underperformed lower beta credits (-1.61%). In IG, wideners were outpaced by tighteners by around 3-to-2, with 47 credits wider.
By sector, CONS saw 38% names wider, ENRGs 7% names wider, FINLs 38% names wider, INDUs 24% names wider, and TMTs 74% names wider. Focusing on non-financials, Europe (ITRX Main exFINLS) outperformed US (IG11 exFINLs) with the former trading at 156.88bps and the latter at 204.72bps.
Cross Market, we are seeing the HY-XOver spread decompressing to 388.2bps from 266.81bps, and remains above the short-term average of 312.41bps, with the HY/XOver ratio rising to 1.38x, above its 5-day mean of 1.3x. The IG-Main spread decompressed to 44.5bps from 39bps, and remains above the short-term average of 40.08bps, with the IG/Main ratio rising to 1.3x, above its 5-day mean of 1.25x.
In the US, non-financials underperformed financials as IG11 ExFINLs are wider by 2bps to 204.7bps, with 58 of the 104 names tighter. while among US Financials, the CDR Counterparty Risk Index fell 5.68bps to 171.37bps, with Finance names (worst) wider by 59.08bps to 918.07bps, Brokers (best) tighter by 24.08bps to 219.25bps, and Banks tighter by 10.5bps to 185.43bps. Monolines are trading wider on average by 105.92bps (4.45%) to 2025.52bps.
In IG11, FINLs underperformed non-FINLs (1.1% wider to 0.99% wider respectively), with the former (IG11 FINLs) wider by 4.4bps to 400.4bps, with 12 of the 21 names tighter. The IG CDS market (as per CDX) is cheap to the LQD-TLH-implied valuation of investment grade credit (184.06bps), with the bond ETFs underperforming the IG CDS market by around 6.75bps.
In Europe, ITRX Main ex-FINLs (outperforming FINLs) rallied 12.12bps to 156.88bps (with ITRX FINLs -trending tighter- better by 9 to 115bps) and is currently trading tight to its week's range at 0%, between 176.39 to 156.88bps, and is trending tighter. Main LoVOL (trend tighter) is currently trading tight to its week's range at -0.02%, between 95.29 to 84.87bps. ExHVOL underperformed LoVOL as the differential decompressed to 26.97bps from 24.61bps, but remains above the short-term average of 22.95bps. The Main exFINLS to IG ExHVOL differential compressed to 45.04bps from 51.16bps, but remains below the short-term average of 53.92bps.
The Emerging Market index is 0.2% riskier (1.6bps wider) to 668bps. EM10 (No Trend) is currently trading tight to its week's range at 5.3%, between 695.5 to 666.5bps. The HY-EM spread decompressed to 734.16bps from 677.34bps, and remains above the short-term average of 697.55bps, with the HY/EM ratio rising to 2.1x, above its 5-day mean of 2.03x.
Index/Intrinsics Changes (WoW)
CDR LQD 50 NAIG091 -7.23bps to 240.48 (17 wider - 31 tighter <> 29 steeper - 21 flatter).
CDX11 IG -6bps to 193 ($0.26 to $98.28) (FV +2.36bps to 233.52) (47 wider - 70 tighter <> 74 steeper - 51 flatter) - Trend Tighter.
CDX11 HVOL -22bps to 450 (FV +11.45bps to 480.62) (14 wider - 16 tighter <> 20 steeper - 10 flatter) - Trend Tighter.
CDX11 ExHVOL -0.95bps to 111.84 (FV +4.65bps to 170.42) (33 wider - 62 tighter <> 41 steeper - 54 flatter).
CDX11 XO +23.3bps to 600 (FV -27.13bps to 525.94) (8 wider - 25 tighter <> 26 steeper - 9 flatter) - Trend Wider.
CDX11 HY (30% recovery) Px $-1.31 to $72.88 / +58.4bps to 1402.2 (FV -66.89bps to 1048.88) (31 wider - 67 tighter <> 87 steeper - 12 flatter) - Trend Wider.
LCDX10 (55% recovery) Px $-1.27 to $76.38 / +81bps to 1293.78 - Trend Wider.
MCDX11 -15bps to 195bps. - Trend Tighter.
CDR Counterparty Risk Index fell 5.68bps (-3.21%) to 171.37bps (7 wider - 7 tighter).
DXY weakened 0.76% to 85.35.
Oil fell $1.6 to $40.08.
Gold fell $16.2 to $911.65.
VIX fell 1.47pts to 43.37%.
10Y US Treasury yields rose 14.4bps to 2.99%.
S&P500 Futures gained 2.8% to 845.5.
IG Sector Moves and Betas (WoW)
In IG11, TMT (the worst sector this week) under-performed IG, moving (on average) 13.6bps (5.63%) wider to an average of 270bps. FINL (the second weakest sector on the week) under-performed IG, moving (on average) 43.6bps (0.96%) wider to an average of 736.1bps. INDU (the median sector) under-performed IG, moving (on average) 21bps (0.3%) wider to an average of 268.6bps. CONS (the second best sector of the week) under-performed IG, moving (on average) 0.6bps (0.03%) wider to an average of 222.5bps. ENRG (the best sector this week) out-performed IG, moving (on average) 22.6bps (12.67%) tighter to an average of 126.8bps.
From the top-down, index capital structure changes were both improving with credit outpacing equity. The sectors were mixed with CONS (equity outperformed credit as they both strengthened), ENRG (improving with credit outpacing equity), FINL (divergent as equity beats credit), INDU (divergent as equity beats credit), and TMT (divergent as equity beats credit).
CDX-based regression betas indicate that CONS (-0.02x) have the highest beta and FINL (-0.1x) the lowest, with TMT (-0.04x), INDU (-0.05x), and ENRG (-0.07x) in between. Comparing the regression betas to current level betas we see that ENRG (1.01x rich) is the richest sector, while FINL (-2.09x cheap) is the cheapest, with CONS (0.44x rich), INDU (0.25x rich), and TMT (0.23x rich) trading more in line.
Focusing on intra-sector movements within IG, we notice dispersion increasing the most in INDU which shifted 33.43% to 318.4bps, and the least in ENRG which shifted -20.79% to 87.5bps.
Index Internals(WoW)
Within the 240 name CDX Index Universe, sentiment is more bullish, with 81 (32%) wideners to 149 (60%) tighteners and 173 (69%) steepeners to 68 (27%) flatteners (1.8 tighteners for every widener). Among this universe, there are 12 credits with a bullish trend, and 7 with a bearish trend (based on the previous five days trading action). The market's general sentiment is evident as we note that 24 credits are at the widest in their 5-day range currently, and 105 are at their tightest.
58 credits are in the Top Decile (Spread-wise) of their 52-week range, while 2 credits are in the Bottom Decile. Furthermore, 21 credits are making new 52-week wides (Spread-wise) while 8 credits are making new 52-week tights. Notably, from the 240 name index universe, there are 46 (~19%) credits that have inverted curves, with an average inversion of 15% of 5Y CDS.
Within the IG universe, dispersion overall has risen 69bps to 571bps, as the wings of the distribution (10-90%) increased more than the centre (25-75%) of the distribution. The distribution shifted non-linearly as the 90th percentile increased the most (72bps /11.94%) to 675bps, and the 75th percentile increased the least (-20bps /-5.67%) to 332.5bps.
Single-Name Movers(WoW)
This week's biggest absolute movers in IG were iStar Financial Inc. (+662.91bps), Textron Financial Corp (+555.45bps), and MBIA Insurance Corporation (+338.77bps) in the wideners, and Constellation Energy Group Inc. (-110bps), International Lease Finance Corp. (-57.93bps), and Simon Property Group, L.P. (-55bps) in the tighteners. The week's biggest percentage movers in IG were Textron Financial Corp (+56.21%), News America Inc (+26.3%), and Dow Chemical Company (+25%) in the wideners, and Constellation Energy Group Inc. (-26.51%), National Rural Utilities Cooperative Finance Corporation (-22.22%), and Valero Energy Corp. (-20%) in the tighteners.
In the more financial-heavy CDR NAIG LQD 50 index, sentiment is mixed with 17 wider to 31 tighter, and 29 steeper to 21 flatter as 43 of the 50 credits have inverted curves. The biggest absolute movers were Financial Security Assurance Inc. (+91.57bps), RR Donnelley & Sons Company (+45bps), and News America Inc (+30.25bps) in the wideners, and Constellation Energy Group Inc. (-110bps), Goldman Sachs Group Inc (-63bps), and Simon Property Group, L.P. (-55bps) in the tighteners. The biggest percentage movers in the CDR NAIG LQD 50 were News America Inc (+26.3%), Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc. (+14.29%), and Computer Sciences Corp. (+12.29%) in the wideners, and Constellation Energy Group Inc. (-26.51%), National Rural Utilities Cooperative Finance Corporation (-22.22%), and Goldman Sachs Group Inc (-20.93%) in the tighteners.
In XO11, the week's biggest percentage movers were Belo Corp (+14.91%), MGM Mirage Inc (+13.68%), and Bombardier Inc. (+10.16%) in the wideners, and Chemtura Corporation (-29.26%), KB Home (-21.3%), and CA, Inc. (-19.57%) in the tighteners. The largest absolute movers in XO11 were MGM Mirage Inc (+274.2bps), Belo Corp (+182.09bps), and Bombardier Inc. (+65bps) in the wideners, and Chemtura Corporation (-2296.65bps), EL Paso Corp (-145bps), and Flextronics International Ltd. (-130.5bps) in the tighteners.
In the names of the HY11 index, amid low single-name liquidity, this week's biggest percentage movers were Harrah's Operating Co Inc (+32.35%), TRW Automotive Inc (+25.97%), and ArvinMeritor Inc (+25.93%) in the wideners, and Abitibi-Consolidated Inc., Clear Channel Communications Inc, and Chemtura Corporation in the tighteners. The largest absolute movers in HY11 were Idearc Inc., Charter Communications Holdings, LLC, and Harrah's Operating Co Inc in the wideners, and Abitibi-Consolidated Inc., Clear Channel Communications Inc, and Station Casinos, Inc. in the tighteners.
The CDR Counterparty Risk Index Series 2 (of brokers and banks) fell -5.63bps (or -3.18%) to 171.42bps. Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc. (25bps) is the worst (absolute) performer among the banks/brokers of the CDR Counterparty Index, whilst Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc. (14.29%) is the worst (relative) performer. Goldman Sachs Group Inc (-63bps) is the best (absolute) performer among the banks/brokers of the CDR Counterparty Index, and Goldman Sachs Group Inc (-20.93%) is the best (relative) performer.
The CDR Aussie Index fell -5.26bps (or -1.85%) to 279.22bps. Amcor Limited (31.8bps) is the worst (absolute) performer, whilst Amcor Limited (20.68%) is the worst (relative) performer. RIO Tinto Ltd (-60bps) is the best (absolute) performer, and RIO Tinto Ltd (-8.16%) is the best (relative) performer.
The CDR Asian Index rose 25.45bps (or 3.86%) to 684.51bps. Tata Motors Ltd. (250.9bps) is the worst (absolute) performer, whilst Hitachi Ltd (95.83%) is the worst (relative) performer. Aiful Corporation (-80.6bps) is the best (absolute) performer, and Hutchison Whampoa Ltd (-4.87%) is the best (relative) performer.
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